- FX volatility rises the highest in 5 years amid US election results which was surprised for markets twice in last 5 elections.
- Biden’s win will clear the road for large fiscal stimulus deal which may support global equities immediately after the result.
Latest Polls tracker suggests Mr Biden can count on at least 252 Electoral College votes against Donald Trump’s 125. Candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. Admittedly markets are in consensus that Biden’s will be negative for USD versus major currencies but it may not be same for Indian Rupee and other emerging peers.
Moreover Mr Biden plans to unleash a large government spending programmed to combat the effects of corona virus on the world’s biggest economy. Deadlock between the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and the White House scuppered hopes of a pre-election fiscal stimulus package as mentioned in FT. Biden’s win clearly clear the road of a large fiscal stimulus deal which will be highly positive for global equities.
Stocks zoom higher ahead of election
The US stocks finished choppy session higher on Monday, 02 November 2020, as investors risk sentiments partially helped by a surprisingly big improvement in Chinese economic data and ahead of the presidential election with polls continued to show Democrat Joe Biden holds a strong lead.
US treasury yields were mixed on Monday amid looming US election uncertainty and a continued surge in coronavirus cases. US 2-year yields rose by 1 point to near 0.158%. But US 10-year yields fell by 1 point to near 0.852%.
US economic data front: US Construction Spending Rises By 0.3% In September- US construction spending rose by 0.3% to an annual rate of $1.414 trillion in September after climbing by 0.8% to $1.410 trillion in August, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Monday. The weaker than expected growth in construction spending came as an increase in spending on private construction was partly offset by a drop in spending on public construction. The Commerce Department said spending on private construction climbed by 0.9% to an annual rate of $1.075 trillion, with a spike in spending on residential construction more than offsetting a slump in spending on non-residential construction. Meanwhile, the report said spending on public construction tumble by 1.7% to an annual rate of $339.1 billion amid a steep drop in spending on highway construction
TREND : WEAK BULLISH / SIDEWAYS
Time : 02/11/2020
Pivot : 1.1642
Technical View : LONG ABOVE 1.1662
Target : 1.1677, 1.1681, 1.1701
Technical View : SHORT BELOW 1.1622
Target : 1.1613, 1.1603, 1.1589