WTI Crude oil stayed slippery after witnessing excellent gains this week. The commodity hit a one week high above $39 per barrel as US equities flared up and traders eyed a drop in US crude oil inventories. Prices are down 2% at $38.02 per barrel.The US EIA noted this week that gross inputs to US refineries, also referred to as refinery runs, have been lower than the five-year (2015-19) average since April, when responses to the 2019 novel corona virus disease (COVID-19) reduced demand for refined products such as gasoline, distillate fuel, and jet fuel. Since the end of August, the continued effects of the pandemic in the United States and in crucial destinations for U.S. petroleum exports in Europe and Latin America, in addition to seasonal factors, have resulted in continued lower refinery runs. The sustained lower runs throughout 2020 combined with relatively low crack spreads—an approximate indication of the profitability of refining based on the relative values of gasoline, distillate, and crude oil—have resulted in several announced refinery closures in the United States and abroad.
U.S. oil fell nearly 1% on Friday as new lockdowns went into affect in Europe raising questions over the outlook for demand for crude, while ballots were still being counted in the U.S. election with its outcome undecided, keeping markets on edge. Italy recorded its highest daily number infections on Thursday and the United States surpassed 100,000 new cases of COVID-19 in one day last week, a record. The European Union’s executive commission also cut its economic forecast and predicted the bloc won’t see a rebound to pre-virus levels until 2023. Vote counting and trends from the U.S. election point to the Republicans retaining control of the Senate, while Democrats are expected to take a slimmed majority in the House of Representatives, dashing hopes for a large stimulus package, another factor weighing on oil. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are expected to delay bringing back 2 million barrels per day of supply in January, given the decline in demand from new COVID-19 lockdowns.
TREND : WEAK BEARISH
Time : 06/11/2020
Pivot : 38.25
Technical View : LONG ABOVE 38.45
Target : 38.65, 38.95, 39.95, 40.49
Technical View : SHORT BELOW 38.05
Target : 37.85, 37.01, 36.56, 35.47